The Golden Globe Awards, which will be announced tonight in a ceremony I won’t watch, are considered a prime forecast for who is going to win the Oscars. Every year, people assume this to be true, and the results are inevitably mixed. I had a discussion about this last night with several members of my family, during which I stated who I thought would win the Big Six Oscars this year. My predictions were met with, “But that’s not a good film/performance” or “this movie/performance was better” and so on. I responded by saying I wouldn’t know, since I hadn’t seen any of the performances or the film I picked to be the winners. When asked how I could choose the winner of the Oscar without even seeing the movies I was talking about, I said that I was not saying who I thought should win, but who would win. My list is not based on my own personal preferences, but on the tendencies of the Academy. I do this every year, and I always manage to predict at least five of the Big Six winners correctly.
The point I raise is that the winner of the Oscar each year has only so much to do with the quality of the performance or the picture in question. This is not to say quality is not important at the Oscars, but it only counts for so much. Who wins an Oscar has to do with a number of factors, the first of which is how likely they are to be nominated. People always celebrate the unexpected nominee who sneaks in (Billy Bob Thornton in Sling Blade, Keisha Castle Hughes in Whale Rider), but these actors never win. The nomination is an announcement that they gave a great performance, and it can be a signal that they should be considered for a win in the future. Last year, Colin Firth got an unexpected nomination for A Single Man, and that is part of the reason he will win the Oscar this year. But if the nomination is not a forgone conclusion, the Oscar will never come, no matter how good the performance is (see: Terrence Howard in Hustle and Flow).
Secondly, there has to be a certain amount of political pull to the candidate. Perhaps they were nominated recently and lost when they probably should have won. This would help us understand Russell Crowe’s almost inexplicable Best Actor win for Gladiator (even Crowe looked confused when his name was announced). It was the Academy’s way of saying, “Hey sorry we didn’t give it to you last year for The Insider. Here ya go.”
The Academy will also give Oscars as a sort of Lifetime Achievement Award to someone they should have given an Oscar to a long time ago (see: Martin Scorcese’s win for The Departed). This will be a contributing factor in Helena Bonham Carter’s win for Best Supporting Actress. This also often works in reverse. An actor who already has an Oscar is less likely to win another one, especially if it was a recent win. This is why Jeff Bridges will not win for True Grit.
But let me get to the nominations, and I’ll explain why my choice is likely to win, and why the other likely choices are unlikely to win. Understand that I am not saying the ones I’m choosing are more (or even less) deserving. I’m just stating why the Academy will choose them. Cold logic, that’s all.
BEST PICTURE: The Social Network
This is one of the most hotly debated categories, and it will be even more hotly debated if The King’s Speech wins the Golden Globe tonight, which is very likely. After all, the Golden Globes are chosen by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and The King’s Speech is a British film. Yes, it often comes down to that. And it will work that way in reverse at the Oscars. The King’s Speech might be a shoo-in some years, but not this year.
The Social Network has everything going for it right now. It had a good run at the box office, it’s getting all the critic’s awards, and it’s an American film. Remember, producers will often choose a winner that helps their own bottom line. This is why Titanic beat out L.A. Confidential despite nearly every major critic group in the country picking L.A. Confidential. As a sidenote, it should also be noted that the win for Titanic almost assured that Avatar did not beat out The Hurt Locker last year. They already gave James Cameron his Oscar for Best Picture over a much better film. They weren’t going to do it again. And yes, I know Cameron was the director, but they will rarely give the Best Director Oscar to anyone whose film isn’t winning Best Picture. Tendencies.
The King’s Speech has also been a hit, but not as big a one as The Social Network. So even if we consider them even after those two tests, there are two other factors that will deep six any chance it has to win. The first is that it is British. The second, and perhaps most important one, is that The King’s Speech is going to win other major Oscars.
When George Clooney won his Best Supporting Actor Oscar for Syriana, the first thing he said in his speech was, “Well, I guess I’m not going to win for best director.” And he was dead on the money. The choices this year are not so clear that a film guaranteed to get a couple acting Oscars will also win Best Picture. Colin Firth and Helena Bonham Carter are likely to win, and the Academy knows this. As a result, there is no way they will give Best Picture to a British flick when there is a homegrown one that is getting better reviews from many. This category is not nearly as close as people make out.
BEST DIRECTOR: David Fincher (The Social Network)
This one’s not close either. Fincher will win Best Director for a couple of reasons. The first is his track record. He’s done a lot of good films, and he was nominated two years ago for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but lost out to Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire, which is an interesting contradiction to everything I just wrote about the Best Picture winner. By the logic of my Best Picture analysis, Benjamin Button should have won because it had a big budget and Slumdog Millionaire was a British film. But the mitigating factor was the critical response. Slumdog Millionaire was such a shockingly original film, so loaded with things we’d never seen in a big budget movie before, so wonderfully energetic, and so beloved by the critics, that it was able to pull the upset. The King’s Speech does not have these advantages. It is a period piece, and no matter how good it is, The Social Network, at least in the eyes of the critics is every bit as good, more timely, and more surprisingly original, which means The King’s Speech can’t pull the same upset.
That’s the second reason Fincher will win Best Director. His picture is going to win Best Picture. This is not always the case, but it usually is. Best Picture and Best Director are the chocolate and peanut butter of the Oscars. It is rare they don’t match up, and this is no year for the exception. Tom Hooper and Darren Aronofsky are very respected directors who, by all accounts, did great work on their movies. But their movies do not have such a huge groundswell that one of these directors is considered more accomplished in what they did than Fincher is.
This brings up an interesting side note. If you consider that Fincher was likely second choice for Best Director two years ago, and that this in turn set him up for a future Oscar (this one, to be specific), then it should be assumed that Hooper and Aronofsky are going to be at the top of the list for the next few years. That’s the third reason Fincher will win. Aronofsky is 41. Hooper is 38. They are young and will get their turns. At least, the Academy will assume this. This kind of thinking hamstrung Scorcese for a long time. Hopefully that doesn’t happen to Hooper and Aronofsky. Both are wonderful directors. But this is Fincher’s year. It’s his turn.
BEST ACTOR: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
The Golden Globes failed to nominate the obvious second choice for this award: Jeff Bridges for True Grit. I don’t think that’s going to hurt Bridges, however, because I don’t think he ever had a chance to begin with. Firth has been around a long time, and he got an unexpected nomination last year for A Single Man, which means the Academy felt he gave such a great performance they were willing to nominate him even though he wasn’t an obvious choice. That means he is respected. Also, his movie is a critically acclaimed picture that won’t win the Oscar. The Academy’s tendency to balance things along the best candidates for Best Picture can only help him.
But the most damning thing for Bridges is that he won the Oscar for Best Actor last year. His performance in True Grit (I actually saw this one) is brilliant, but the Acadamy almost never gives Oscars to the same actor two years in a row (Tom Hanks is the rare exception). The only way Bridges would win would be if there was no other obvious choice. He might have a chance if not for Firth. Critics have gone crazy over Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, but he wouldn’t beat Bridges in a head-to-head. The movie was just too small. James Franco has also received great reviews for 127 Hours, but he’s hosting the show, which alone is enough to disqualify him. Plus both those guys are young. They’ll get their turns. So thinks the Academy.
Firth is a talented veteran, highly respected, who gave a performance that critics are crazy about in a film that will be the Best Picture runner-up. If Bridges hadn’t won last year, he’d be a shoo-in this year. But he did. So he isn’t.
BEST ACTRESS: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
None of the other nominees were in films as widely screened, so Portman’s got the advantage of visibility. Plus, critics loved the movie. Plus, the backstory on the performance is the kind of thing Hollywood goes crazy over. Ten months of ballet training to play the role of a disintegrating ballerina. Also, everyone has watched this young woman grow up on screen. And did we mention she trained for ten months in order to play the role?
This is one of those “Role of a Lifetime” moments. The physical demands on Portman were so incredible that it would almost seem cruel of the Academy to deny her an award for them. Hollywood is always impressed by actors who are willing to push themselves physically for a role (see: DeNiro in Raging Bull).
There are a couple performances out there generating good buzz. Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine. But both films are too small to get enough recognition to overcome Portman. Also, Kidman already has an Oscar.
The same, however, cannot be said for Julianne Moore or Annette Bening (both in The Kids Are All Right), and this could present the biggest challenge to what would normally be a lock-down for Portman. Moore and Bening are two highly respected actors who have been around a long time without ever winning an Oscar, despite winning just about every other major critical award between them. If either of these performances were considered supporting roles, that would help them out. However, two good actresses in the same film nominated for the same award never bodes well. There is a tendency to split the vote (see: Thelma and Louise).
In the end, a difficult, critically acclaimed, physically excruciating performance trumps experience. This is Portman’s year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
A similar argument to the one for Colin Firth on this one, and also to Annette Bening and Julianne Moore, for that matter. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams are both getting rave reviews for their performances in The Fighter, and that’s the problem. They are in the same movie, which leads to a split vote (should they both be nominated, which is likely), and that helps Carter. Of the two challengers, Adams, who has been proven herself a formidable talent, will likely be the tougher one to fight off. She is not far from getting an Oscar, and probably more than one.
The reason I choose Carter is that, like Firth, she is a highly respected veteran in a movie that is getting massive critical acclaim. That said, the more I think about it, the more it seems like this could be the one category I miss on. Amy Adams should have won an Oscar for Junebug, and could have won for Doubt. And if Melissa Leo weren’t going to be nominated too, she’d have a real shot. Carter’s performance, from the buzz, is supporting in every sense of the term, and not nearly the most demanding role of her career. But here is a chance to give a very good actress a well-deserved Oscar in a year that there is no clear frontrunner. In the Supporting Actor/Actress categories, that is frequently enough to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Bale is a leading man in a supporting role, which helps (see: George Clooney in Syriana). And he is getting amazing reviews for his portrayal of a drug addict. Oh, and did I mention he lost a bunch of weight for the role? There isn’t really anyone else out there who is getting the kind of response Bale is. Jeremy Renner got good reviews for his performance in The Town, but it’s unlikely a performance in a heist film could unseat the one surefire Oscar for a highly acclaimed film that is unlikely to get another one. This also works against Melissa Leo and Amy Adams. The assumption will be that The Fighter is already getting its Oscar through Bale, and doesn’t need a second one.
The one sleeper I would put on this list–and it’s a serious longshot–is Bill Murray for his performance in Get Low. Murray really, really deserves an Oscar, and the Academy knows this. But the film did not get the hype a lot of people thought it would, and Murray being nominated alone would be a coup. Short of a huge groundswell of support here, I can’t see anyone toppling Bale.
So that’s the list for the Big Six Oscars, without any thought at all given to how good the performances or movies are. I’m sure all will be deserving of their awards when the moment comes. But that said, quality is not the only reason someone takes home an Oscar. When Alan Arkin won for Little Miss Sunshine, he said it was because the voters were afraid he was going to die soon, and this was his last chance to get one. There are too many forces outside the performance that allow Oscar to be a pretty predictable fellow. As Paul Newman said, “To be nominated is an honor. After that, it’s all politics.”
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